Show me a modern political candidate who doesn’t understand television, and I’ll show you a loser.
When TV became the dominant medium for Americans to consume news and entertainment, political candidates could no longer be successful without looking polished in televised debates, appearing on talk shows and spending big on commercials.
Like the television boom of the 1960s, we are standing on the precipice of a big shift in how public figures are perceived and how campaigns are conducted. Our frontier is social media, and its impact on mainstream political culture is coming on fast.
While my colleagues have been making their predictions about what’s on the tech and social media horizon in 2011, there will be no major U.S. elections next year. Here, we’ll be postulating about social media’s impact on the more long-term future of American civics.
1. There Will Be a Tipping Point
While campaigning and marketing share many similarities, the differences mean everything when you’re talking about democracy’s big picture. Brands can sell by hitting a tech savvy demographic of influencers. Elections involve everyone, whether they’re online or not.
If a large bloc of your constituency is made up of 65+ year-old retirees, chances are a Facebookclass="blippr-nobr">Facebook strategy won’t be time well spent. Despite the enthusiasm of the tech crowd and blogosphere, Twitterclass="blippr-nobr">Twitter is exceedingly far from the mainstream, with only 6% of Americans using the service. And while the world consumes YouTubeclass="blippr-nobr">YouTube videos at a mind-bending rate, viral success is still transient and elusive.
While these tools have certainly proven to be effective in rallying support and contributions, we don’t yet live in a world where social media can make or break a political candidate by itself.
That will change, perhaps even by the next major election cycle.
The future of the social media politician is not about wild speculation and technological uncertainties. It has everything to do with when and how deeply social media can be absorbed into mainstream culture. We are on track for a tipping point — a JFK/Nixon TV debate moment — when everyone on the political scene will acknowledge that we can never go back to campaigns without social.
2. New Media Strategists Will Just Be Strategists
I’ve had the opportunity to talk with the new media strategists for a number of senators, congresspeople and political causes. Despite their differences, they all agree that their own jobs will soon be folded into the larger campaign strategy. As many have already foreseen, social media will not require experts for much longer. As we head toward true mainstream adoption, social will be a default and well-understood tool in the belt of any public-facing professional.
We’ve already seen this happening in the private sector with marketing and PR professionals. As many corporate entities lumber to catch up with those on the cutting edge, so too will government officials and the campaigners who seek their offices.
3. We’ll See the Devaluation of Old Media in Politics
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Print and radio ads are not as valuable as TV. TV will no longer be as valuable as interactive media. For politics, this is especially so, as the arena (at its best, anyway) warrants engagement and discussion.
As media appetites shift, this is an inevitability. In the U.S., we’re already seeing web use catch up with television in terms of weekly hours spent. Political money will simply go where the eyeballs are, and we’re likely to see a big payoff on social creativity when it comes to future campaigns.
4. Whistle Blowing Gets More Efficient, But That’s It
The WikiLeaksclass="blippr-nobr">Wikileaks saga has ignited plenty of discussion about journalism and whistle blowing in the Internet age. But at the end of the day, the mechanics of an information leak are about the same as they’ve always been: Someone from within an organization leaks damaging information, and the media (in whatever form) disseminates it to the public. Generally speaking, WikiLeaks has only acted as a “middle man” for raw information. It’s journalists who are making sense of it and transmitting it to the public with context.
The web only speeds up this process through digitization and universal access. Governments and politicians will feel the impact of leaks sooner, but it’s unlikely the methods of protecting sensitive information will be much changed.
Your Thoughts?
What do you think will be social media’s biggest impact on the political process? How long until we see a winning campaign strategy that is purely social? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
More Political Resources from Mashable
- How WikiLeaks Became the Story of the Year in 2010 [VIDEO]
/> - The Future of Social Media and Politics
/> - How Political Campaigns Are Using Social Media for Real Results
/> - How the “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” Nailed Social Media
/> - 17 Web Resources to Help You Decide on Election Day
For more Social Media coverage:
- class="f-el">class="cov-twit">Follow Mashable Social Mediaclass="s-el">class="cov-rss">Subscribe to the Social Media channelclass="f-el">class="cov-fb">Become a Fan on Facebookclass="s-el">class="cov-apple">Download our free apps for Android, iPhone and iPad
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), a longtime advocate of Internet freedom, said she’s undaunted by the Federal Communications Commission’s decision to adopt net neutrality rules. Instead, she thinks the FCC’s action will be a catalyst for renewed commitment on the issue in the 112th Congress.
“What we will do is first use this as a way to show how we’re going to keep that Pledge to America,” she said yesterday at The Heritage Foundation. “We said in the Pledge that any rule or regulation that had more than $100 million impact on our nation’s economy would be subject to review. … This is an area where we can keep that Pledge. We can go ahead and start congressional review and move forward on getting this off the books.”
Blackburn was speaking at The Bloggers Briefing as the FCC debated the net neutrality rules. When the 112th Congress convenes on Jan. 5, Blackburn said she will reintroduce her bill to block the FCC from implementing the regulations and force the issue back to Congress.
“We’ve had bipartisan agreement on this, that the FCC should not take this action, that we, as members of Congress, should be the ones that are there to take that action or any action that should be done,” she said.
Of course, in this case, that “action” might be no action at all. After all, discontent with Internet service providers has not exactly been widespread. On the contrary, Blackburn said: Most people have been pleased with the access they’ve received from providers like AT&T, Verizon and Comcast.
“Our action is to make sure that the Internet remains unencumbered and does not have the FCC with a chokehold on it,” she said. “We are moving from an industrial, manufacturing, technology-based economy to a creative economy … and the creative economy depends on an unencumbered Internet.”
FCC intrusion would mean just the opposite — an Internet of interference and obstacles.
“What the FCC would do today is to implement the Fairness Doctrine for the Internet and force people to come to them,” Blackburn said. “They would have the determination of what could be innovated. They would have the determination of what should be the priority and value assigned to all the content that is traveling. So, we’re watching it very closely. We’re going to continue to do so as they go through the rule-making process and, then, come Jan. 5, you’re going to see us vigorously opposing this.”
That vigorous opposition will include a lack of funding if necessary, Blackburn said.
“That goes without saying,” she said. “We’re going to have numerous amendments to defund plenty of things in the House to keep money from going where they would like for money to be going, whether it is health care, whether it is the FCC, whether it is the EPA implementing cap-and-trade under the Clean Air Act. You’re going to see a series of amendments that would defund those activities that we view as being harmful to free enterprise and the American people.”
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